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Your opponent can manipulate your rational calculus of statecraft and war. Here’s the perverse thing: the price is not fixed. Gonzalez is currently operating with the Boxer Amphibious Ready Group in support of maritime security operations and theater security cooperation efforts in the U.S. GULF OF ADEN (May 17, 2016) Members of the visit, board, search and seizure (VBSS) team operate a rigid-hull inflatable boat (RHIB) alongside guided-missile destroyer USS Gonzalez (DDG 66). Or it could be that the leadership has stopped caring about its political goal enough to pay the price, or has more pressing priorities to tend to. The price may have gone up in terms of magnitude, duration, or both. In fact, he warns them to get out of an enterprise if they find that the goal is no longer worth what it will cost them. Think of it as purchasing your goal on an installment plan.īut there’s a corollary to this Clausewitzian function: he counsels competitors not to overspend on their goals. In this case, it reveals the price of your political goal. Just as in elementary physics, multiplying the rate by the time gives you the total amount of something. Magnitude is the rate at which a competitor spends resources such as lives, treasure, and military hardware duration is how long it keeps on spending. In Clausewitz’s lingo, the value of the object dictates the “magnitude” and “duration” of the effort you make to obtain it. It’s the same principle as when you go shopping. How much you want something governs how much you’re prepared to pay for it. The political object is your goal, and the value of the object is how much you want that goal.

By that, he means you should always keep what he calls the “value of the political object” uppermost in mind. So how do you convince an adversary to stand down, letting you get your way without fighting? For Clausewitz, the pinnacle of statecraft is to compete rationally in an environment inimical to rationality. Mao proclaimed that war is politics with bloodshed while politics is war without bloodshed. For example, founding chairman Mao Zedong repurposed the Clausewitzian definition of war as a continuation of political intercourse carried out with the addition of violent means. The Chinese Communist Party leadership subscribes to his logic but carries it to the nth degree. While the Prussian grandmaster was writing about open war, he also hands us tools for thinking about peacetime deterrence.

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Well, if I were Xi, I would crack open my volume of Clausewitz. intervention in the Taiwan Strait, the hotspot that dominates the news of late? If I’m Xi Jinping & Co., how do I deter U.S. So it’s worth looking at deterrence through their eyes.

The red team tries to deter us even as we try to deter the red team. Contenders grapple constantly for strategic advantage, trying to one-up each other. But dynamism pervades strategic competition. We sometimes seem to assume that we can deter an antagonist for all time if we make its leadership a believer in our power and resolve.

The topic of this panel is conventional deterrence vis-à-vis China, so I thought it would be fun and maybe even enlightening to try some role reversal and consider how China thinks about deterring America through conventional means. Naval War College Foundation Newport Summer Symposium, panel on Conventional Deterrence, August 19, 2022. Editor’s Note: These remarks were delivered at the U.S.